Legislative elections in Portugal

On October 6, the Portuguese will go to the polls to elect the 230 members of the Portuguese National Assembly and the Prime Minister. For the next four years.

On August 29, the President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced the official timetable for Portugal's legislative elections. The pre-electoral period is now open, and direct or indirect advertising in the media outside the electoral campaign is now prohibited in accordance with article 72 of the electoral law of the Assembly of the Republic. The campaign began on September 22 and will end on October 4.

The different political parties

• the Social Democratic Party is represented by Rui Rio
• the Socialist Party is led by current Prime Minister António Costa
• the Left Bloc is led by Catarina Martins
• the CSD-PP is represented by Assunção Cristas
• The Unitary Democratic Coalition, which brings together the Portuguese Communist Party and the ecological party the Greens, is represented by Jerónimo de Sousa.
• PAN (People, Animals, Nature) led by André Silva
   

Voting intentions

With only a few weeks to go before the Portuguese parliamentary elections, the polling organizations have already published their first forecasts. The Multidados conducted a study for the private TV channel TVI to determine the voting intentions of Portuguese voters. The results showed that 35.5% of voters intend to vote for the PS, 20.3% for the PSD, 14.7% for the BE, and 7.9% for the PAN. 

Such a score for the PS would mean the loss of its absolute majority in seats in parliament, while the PAN would become the country's fourth political force, ahead of the PCP (5.6%) and the CDS-PP (3.3%). However, the BE and PAN scores could guarantee a majority and stable support for a new coalition with the PS. Almost 30% of voters said they had no confidence in any party, and 11.5% said they belonged to no party. It should be remembered that abstention in 2015 was 44.14%. Given the abstention rate for the European elections, we can fear the worst.
 

Crisis of right and left exists

At the last legislative elections on October 4, 2015, the right-wing parties (PSD/CDS-PP) won 38.36 % of the vote, including Madeira and the Azores. As for the PS, it too obtained a majority in the National Assembly by joining forces with left-wing partners: the BE, PCP and PEV, setting up the famous "geringonça".

The same poll also highlights a deepening crisis on the right, with the CDS-PP polling just 3.3% of voting intentions. AlthoughAntónio Costa is not certain of winning an absolute majority, the prognosis is that the left will win the elections. Even so, the Prime Minister will have to find a way to strengthen his party's influence in Parliament.